No surprise...Eastside market still rockin' in October

As Congress debates whether to extend, expand, or sunset the first-time homebuyer tax credit it's worth taking a look at pending sales through October 15th, the unofficial deadline for taking advantage of the tax credit.  Unofficial because most transactions with financing assume 45 day close, which has to record by November 30th to claim the credit.

Holy favorable year-over-year comparisons, Batman!  380 houses went pending in the first 15 days of this month, vs 310 for all of October 2008.  At that pace, we'd finish the month at 760, exceeding September '09 (753 pendings), itself a robust month.  Housing bears like Zillow's Stan Humphries fear these "stimulated" sales figures will induce sellers waiting for the bottom to list, flooding the market with new listings against a suddenly "unstimulated" buyer appetite.

Bring on the Pent-Up Supply:  In a couple of weeks, when we're reasonably clear of tax-credit seekers, I'll be taking a look at inventory levels.  I suspect we'll be at levels below any seen in 2009 or 2008.  There will be an opportunity for sellers bold enough to list in the dead of winter.  We'll have to wait a few months to see if this sales bump and artificially low mortgage rates have truly pulled us off the bottom or merely produced a temporary seller opportunity.

[Required disclosure out of the way:  although these data come entirely from Northwest MLS, "Statistics not compiled or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service"]